“A quadrupling in lithium and a doubling in cobalt production will be needed. This is the ‘gold rush’ of the 21st century” – Faraday Institution
Feature: Globalisation, once a benchmark for progress, has become a word that signals caution. The pandemic has revealed that weaknesses in the global supply chain results in delays, gluts and shortages.
NET ZERO
Dependency on other countries, especially those thousands of miles apart, during times of a negative global phenomenon such as Covid-19 has exposed failings in the international economy for products and services.
This includes transport, and although the decrease in travel and movement has threatened companies’ survival, it has also revealed a less polluted world.
Technological advances and environmental concerns mean supply chains must be improved to allow Britain access to raw materials for electric vehicle batteries to meet its target of net zero and ending sales of diesel and petrol vehicles by 2035.
PRODUCTION
The result for companies will be an increase in demand for lithium, cobalt and nickel used to manufacture electric vehicle (EV) batteries, claims the Faraday Institution.
A report by the Faraday Institution states that the key issue with delivering this change appears to be about scaling up annual global production levels and supply change issues rather than whether the world has enough resources.
“The current production of raw minerals is far from adequate to meet future demand for lithium combined with nickel, iron or cobalt which is the most expensive element.
“The exact supply challenge for the UK will be determined by the nature of the EV transition – whether we import or manufacture EV batteries.
“Supply bottlenecks, mineral price spikes and a slower transition could happen unless action is taken now to mitigate and manage supply chain risks.
“As well as scale-up and supply chain issues, large quantities of the raw materials contained in batteries will need to be recycled.”
FORECAST
The Faraday Institution has developed projections of EV sales and the battery manufacturing supply required [GWh per annum], the mix of different types of battery chemistry, and the critical material intensity needed.
The report adds: “It is difficult to forecast the exact path of future battery chemistries as it will change as technologies are created and new products and applications are developed.
“The price of raw materials and the extent to which new mineral reserves are discovered and exploited will also have an impact on the optimal battery chemistry going forward.
“The global forecasts are likely to be exceeded if more and more countries bring forward the end to the sale of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars in a similar fashion to the UK and Europe.”
British company Faradion already manufactures sodium-ion cells for e-bikes and e-rickshaws commercially.
The Sheffield-based company’s patented chemistry delivers a high performance, safe and cost-effective battery solution for key applications, such as transportation, storage, back-up power and energy in remote locations. It claims to provide lithium-ion performance at lead-acid prices.
STATISTICS
Research by the Faraday Institution reveals huge increases in the demand for EV batteries over the next 30 years.
During 2020 the UK needs 3 GWh per annum and this figure is projected to increase to 151 GWh by 2050.
The global demand for EV batteries is currently 60 GWh. This is likely to increase to 5, 760 GWh by 2050.
The demand for nickel in the UK will rise from 2,000 tonnes to 67,000t, for lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) the rise will be from 1,000t to 59,000t, and for cobalt 500t to 10,600t.
By 2035 the global demand for nickel will be 2,000 kilotonnes, 1,760kt LCE, and around 320kt of cobalt.
“A quadrupling in global lithium and a doubling in global cobalt production will be needed between 2018 and 2035. This is the ‘gold rush of the 21st century’.
“In the medium to long-term, the demand for raw materials could be partly served by increased battery recycling.
“Such growth in global production will not be easy and there could be shortages and bottlenecks, particularly as lead times for capital investment in the minerals industry are typically quite long.
“Inevitably, there will be a volatile market with fluctuations and spikes in prices when demand diverges from the supply in any given year.”
The Faraday Institution cites the price of lithium as one such example as it is currently [April 2020] nearly one-third the peak of November 2017.
EXPLORATION
Britain will face a similar challenge but is more focused on the chemical industry, imports and the supply chain rather than mineral extraction.
But the country is already exploring domestic supplies of raw material such as deposits in Cornwall and Wales.
The Faraday Institution identifies the UK as having important commercial strengths such as the second biggest nickel factory in the European Union, and enterprises including lithium mining company Cornish Lithium, and global science and chemicals multinational Johnson Matthey which has locations in more than 30 countries around the world.
“Geographic, political and social issues are factors to consider in relation to mineral extraction.”
Lithium, cobalt and nickel are predominantly found in a small number of countries.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the biggest producer of cobalt, supplying more than 60% of the world’s cobalt but has been beset with problems of human rights’ abuses and child labour.
Key quantities of lithium are found in Chile, Bolivia, Argentina where indigenous peoples are raising their voices against the extraction methods.
But the report ends on a positive note for the UK’s mining industry and its ability to secure supplies for the economy.
“The UK’s historical strength in the global mining industry could be leveraged to counter the security threat and transform the country into a major player that supplies the global automotive and energy sectors with raw and partial processed critical metals.”
* The Faraday Institution is the UK’s independent research institute in Didcot, Oxfordshire for electrochemical energy storage research and skills development.